That ol' black magic is back!
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
by Michael Pickering
November 28, 2003, was Black Friday. That sounds ominous. In a way, it is, for BF is the Friday after Thanksgiving, the first shopping day of the Holiday season.
How retail sales go on that day is considered by many retailers a barometer of how the rest of the most important shopping season in the retail year will be.
It is called Black Friday, because a very successful Holiday Season will often push business' numbers from the red into the black.
In the beginning, I'm sure that many merchants were still feeling a little ominous, for business in recent years hasn't been good, as we all know, and Black Friday has been a bummer.
But all the signs have been indicating otherwise.
An excellent third quarter--growth of 8.2%--great Labor Day sales, positive Beige Book reports, American manufacturing activity higher than it has been in twenty years.
Well, Friday has come and gone and the Ol' Black Magic is back.
The prophets were right, myself included .... Sales that day were reported as "solid", up 5% from the previous year. This Season promises to be one of the best in five years.
The Great American Consumer, the backbone of our financial system, is spending, because of low interest rates, the improving economy, an upswing in the stock market. From that first day, there has been very little browsing and a whole lot of buying. Although shoppers always welcome bargains, if what they want isn't discounted, they buy it anyway and merchants this year haven't taken as many markdowns as in the past.
New Yorkers are using Internet shopping in conjunction with store shopping, not as a replacement. Nationwide, Internet sales are expected to grow 21%.
Here's what is being bought so far and not only as gifts, but as self-purchases as well: Luxury--jewelry, watches, handbags and high heels, anything cashmere. Apparel--dressy and career, often brightly colored. Toys--there doesn't seem to be a gotta-have-it item this year. The classics are doing well, Barbie ... Lincoln Logs. Electronics--flat screen TVs, digital cameras, DVD players.
The economy is on a roll as the stock market climbs and investors are starting to believe that what roared back to life this summer is here to stay.
The service area job market has been steadily improving, and now, as manufacturing companies report exceptionally big jumps in new orders as well as backlogs, involving everything from computers to building materials and chemicals, more and more jobs are and will become available. Unemployment is on a downward tailspin.
In Manhattan's Retail Leasing, a great deal of the available space has already been leased and asking rents have stabilized and are moving up. Last spring, it was reported to be up an average of 3.5%. The average asking rent for ground floor space along primary retail streets has increased 4.9%. The luxury increases are more impressive. Madison Avenue's Golden Mile is up 38%; The Luxury Walk of Fifth Avenue, 22%. Tenant activity has been described as "vibrant" and there has been more landlord flexibility. The Big Box is back--bigger and better than ever. The momentum continues ...
If the third quarter of this year was excellent, the fourth promises to be fabulous!
And I have little doubt that the excitement and success of the last quarter of 2003 will spill over into 2004 and continue, making next year one of the best we've experienced. And, although 2004 will be wonderful, just wait until '05.
posted by VICKY @ 9:34 AM,
0 Comments: